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Doctors’ perceptions on how the NHS will look in 10 years time
Health Policy and Economic Research Unit Briefing note
April 2007
A short web-based survey was sent to junior doctors and other BMA members eligible for membership on the JMF [1]. The survey asked questions about their perceptions on how the NHS will look in 10 years time.
Responses were received from 964 members.
The key findings are detailed below:
- Three in five (61%) respondents think that it is unlikely that the NHS will be ‘free at the point of use’ to all patients.
- Four in five (83%) respondents think that the range of services provided by the NHS ‘free at the point of use’ will decrease and one in ten think it will remain the same.
- Three in five (61%) respondents are very concerned about the possible fragmentation of the NHS and a further third (31%) are somewhat concerned.
- The overwhelming majority of respondents (94%) think that the role of the independent sector in providing NHS care will continue to grow. Only 15% of respondents think that the growing role of the independent sector will benefit patients and only 12% think that it will benefit doctors.
- Around half (46%) of respondents suggest that at least 50% of NHS care will be delivered by the independent sector in 10 years time and 15% suggest that more than three-quarters of NHS care will be delivered by the independent sector.
- Only half of respondents (50%) think that a career as a doctor is a ‘job for life’.
- Around half of respondents (48%) envisage working as a doctor outside of the NHS in 10 years time. Of these, only a third (35%) of respondents envisage that this will be their personal choice and around half (46%) envisage that they will have no choice.
- Two thirds (64%) of respondents see the primary sector of the NHS as having greater job security in 10 year times, compared with the secondary sector (17%) and community sector (19%).
- Less than a fifth of respondents (17%) think that all doctors will automatically get a job in the NHS upon completion of their training in the future.
- The overwhelming majority of respondents (85%) currently work in England, 9% in Northern Ireland, 4% in Wales and 2% in Scotland.
1 Ordinary member of the Association who is either within 12 years of provisional registration or within 11 years of first full registration with the GMC.